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War and conflict · report
The Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS), 2011–2013
Published free: the link opens the whole book.
The first report from the Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System, built with police data and university partners. It maps violent incidents in the ARMM from 2011 to 2013 and links them to rebellion, clan feuds, politics and illicit economies.
This report presents the first 3 years of data from the Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System, set up by International Alert with World Bank funding. It draws on Philippine National Police reports and news, worked through with Mindanao State University, Western Mindanao State University and local validation groups.
It maps violence by province, cause and time of year from 2011 to 2013. Shadow economies such as guns, drugs and kidnapping caused 27% of incidents. Political violence, clan feuds and crimes by private armed groups made up much of the rest. Violence rose around elections, in the lean months before harvest and at the start of the school year.
The report finds that rebellion caused fewer incidents but more deaths than other causes. Basilan had the most violence per person, and Sulu had few incidents but many deaths. It warns that a peace agreement alone will not end violence in the region.
Cover from the publisher’s PDF, shown to identify the book; its rights stay with the publisher.
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The 2017 Conflict Alert report on the causes, costs and trends of violent conflict in Muslim Mindanao from 2011 to 2016. It shows illegal guns, the drug trade and pro-ISIS extremist groups such as the Maute Group becoming major drivers of violence.

2018Free to read
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The 2018 Conflict Alert report, written after the 2017 Marawi siege, on the threat of violent extremism in the Bangsamoro. It looks at what that threat means for the peace process and the region's future development.

2019Free to read
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The 2020 Conflict Alert report, analysing conflict data and trends in the Bangsamoro from 2011 to 2019. It tracks how long-running clan, political, criminal and extremist violence continued into the first year of the BARMM.